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Week 5 Preview – BYU @ Utah State

September 30, 2010

BYU takes to the road again this week as they face in-state rival Utah State.  BYU and Utah State are sporting 1-3 records, and each hopes to turn things around this week.  BYU has won ten straight meetings against the Aggies; their last loss coming in 1993.  Their previous loss to the Aggies?  Ten games earlier.  BYU has not scored fewer than 30 points against the Aggies since that 1982 loss.

What we know about Utah State

Utah State began the season with an impressive loss to Oklahoma.  Now that may sound funny, but the final score was 31-24, and that against a team now ranked 8th in the nation.  Since then, the Aggies have claimed a win against lowly Idaho State, and have lost big to Fresno State and San Diego State.  The Aggies rank ahead of the Cougars in average passing and rushing yards per game, as well as points per game.  BYU has a slight edge in points against per game, but both schools are giving up around 30.  If there is a chance for Utah State to break their ten game losing streak against BYU, this is the year to do it – they’re at home, and BYU is, admittedly, having an off year.

What we know about BYU

BYU is coming into this game riding the longest losing streak they’ve had in a single season in the Bronco Mendenhall era.  They showed great improvement last week as they kept things close with Nevada.  With another week of practice, the offense should be even more potent this week going into Logan.

Keys to the game

Jake Heaps and the Receivers. This may be a key to every game from here on out.  I suppose I’ll quit bringing it up once they’ve figured out how to throw and catch effectively.  Heaps had decent numbers against Nevada, but 24/45 isn’t going to win a whole lot of games.  Utah State is used to giving up a lot of points per game, so this BYU offensive group should be able to develop a rhythm against them.

Road Jitters. To be fair, Jake Heaps basically played the entire game at Florida State, so going up to Utah State shouldn’t seem as difficult.  This is, however, the first official road start for the true freshman quarterback.  Romney Stadium isn’t exactly one of the feared road locations in college football, although I do remember the Cougars seemed a bit off when last there in 2008.  BYU was ranked #8 after having  5-0 start, having just beaten UCLA 59-0 and Wyoming 44-0.   They went up 34-0, and the game ended 34-14, which is all well and good, but I remember watching that game and something just wasn’t right.  The BYU players didn’t look like they were into the game, and I really think the future losses to TCU, Utah, and Arizona that season stemmed from that night in Logan.

Team Identity. Again, another key to the game I’d like to skip, but I feel that I can’t until it’s really established.  Team identity is truly won in tough games against rivals or key conference matchups to win championships.  But, it can also be won in contests against lesser opponents that allow your team to finally find what works best and how to win.  BYU got both last year, at Oklahoma and Tulane (respectively).  I think this game will be another one of the latter, and it will provide BYU what they need to finally click on offense and move forward.

The Nelson non-factor. It would have been pretty cool to have Riley Nelson come in and start against his former team.  I’m sure that there are several Aggie defenders that wouldn’t mind getting a sack or two on him.  Unfortunately, with Nelson on the sidelines, any remaining angst over his departure to BYU will be sidelined with him.

It’s a Trap. Maybe you can’t call any game a trap game for BYU this year.  They shouldn’t be overlooking anyone – but if they do, it’ll be Utah State.  With ten straight wins against the Aggies, preceded by a loss and another ten straight wins before that, anyone could get complacent.

Prediction

In my season preview, I chose BYU over Utah State, 42-14.  I’m going to stand by that one.  Utah State showed promise after their loss to Oklahoma and the win the following week, but it seems they have remembered how to lose.  It should be a good week to be a Cougar fan.

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Nevada 27, BYU 13

September 27, 2010

Saturday was another tough day for the Cougars, as they fell to the Wolfpack of Nevada, losing their third game in a row, for the first time in the Bronco Mendenhall era (in the same season).  A loss is a loss, but there are few good things that the Cougar faithful can take away from this game.  Jake Heaps had his first start.  The game never got entirely out of reach of the Cougars.  Let’s take a look at my keys to the game, from the preview.

Jake Heaps and the Receivers. Jake, the receivers, and the O-line did a good job of avoiding sacks this game, only giving up one.  Compared to the 8 against Florida St, that’s a big improvement.  Jake ended the day 24/45 for 229 yards.  While I’d love to see that percentage be higher – you can’t say they aren’t giving him enough attempts – it could be argued that they are giving them to him at the wrong times (see next paragraph).

Side note regarding play calling: play-calling this year has at times been shocking.  In the 3rd quarter, trailing, the call on 4th and 4 is a run – even when Heaps was 5/6 passing on that drive leading up to that play.  Kariya rushed for 3 of the 4 necessary yards.  4th quarter, still trailing, 3rd and 7 on the Nevada 15 yard line, the call is, DiLuigi to run.  He got 3 yards, and the Cougars settled for a field goal.  On that drive, Heaps was 4/5 passing.

Ball control. BYU actually won the turnover battle.  In the second quarter, Nevada attempted and failed to convert on a 4th and 1 try, for a turnover on downs; and Vic So’oto intercepted the ball (while wearing the fallen Romney Fuga’s jersey) in the fourth quarter.  Taking the ball away from the Wolfpack did a lot to keep the Cougars in this game.

Team Identity. While they aren’t there yet, these Cougars have a lot to be proud of.  Jake Heaps has had his first official start.  He is getting all of the reps in practice, and the difference can be seen on the field.  The Cougars never quit on this game, and looked really good in the last minute as they were driving down the field.

What we know about Nevada

Nevada is going to have a banner year.  They are off to their best start since going 12-0 in 1991.  They are 4-0, and I think their only true challenger the rest of the season is Boise State.  Most people figure Boise St. already has their ticket punched for their trip to the BCS National Championship, but I think the Nevada Wolfpack have as good a chance as anyone this season to knock off the Broncos.

What we know about BYU

Yes, BYU lost 3 games straight, but this BYU team did more against Nevada than many expected.  Nevada was held well below their season averages for offensive production – they were averaging around 50 points per game.  The fact that the Cougars kept it close really tells me that these kids are headed the right direction.  Look for them to rebound the next couple of weeks, and to continue to get better as the season progresses.

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And the starter is…

September 22, 2010

Heaps.

Whether it’s fate, coincidence, accident, or what have you, BYU can finally settle on a starter at QB.

Riley Nelson is out for the season after opting for surgery to repair a shoulder injury.  The injury, to his non-throwing arm, was sustained at the end of his first series against Florida State last weekend.  He was tackled at the end of the play, and while the hit does not look like a season ending hit (see Sam Bradford via Coleby Clawson), it aggravated an injury that coaches say was sustained during fall camp. You can see KSL’s video of Nelson jogging off the field after the play, here.  The broadcaster notices Nelson’s arm immediately…I apparently missed that while I was watching.

Nelson will be out 4-5 months, which effectively does end his season.  If there is something lucky about this for him, the injury happened during the third game of the season, so he can apply for a medical waiver from the NCAA and get another year of eligibility after he returns.

So what now for Jake Heaps?  This season is now his.  For better or for worse, he joins only a handful of freshmen (RM, RS, or otherwise) to ever start a game at QB for BYU.  Jake will now have every rep in practice, and by so doing will hopefully be able to establish better chemistry with his receivers and really take control of the game.

Heaps really does have a rocket arm.  He reminds me of Brett Favre the way he delivers the ball.  It’s an NFL ball that flies straight like a bullet, and nearly as fast.  It is a huge change-up from other quarterbacks in the BYU system of late, but it will be a great weapon once the receivers are used to it.

This will be crucial – as I’ve mentioned before, FSU had 8 sacks in the game against BYU.  Coach Mendenhall has attributed the high number to the QB not getting rid of the ball quickly enough, and to the receivers not getting open quickly enough.  BYU (and Heaps)  is now operating without the safety net of a second starting QB in the stable, so protecting Heaps is now more important than ever.

Jake Heaps can take comfort in this: Dick Harmon reminded me this week of John Beck’s first series as a Freshman.  1st and 10: Sacked for a ten yard loss.  2nd and 20 – QB fumbled, team recovered for a five yard loss.  3rd and 25: Beck completes his first pass, which was an interception.  Beck ended his career at BYU as one of the best in recent memory, with incredible accuracy numbers (around 70% if I remember right) and at the time ranked second all time in passing yards (later surpassed by Max Hall).   An inauspicious beginning isn’t necessarily a good indication of the future.

So Jake, take a deep breath and get out there – you’re up.

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Week 4 Preview – BYU vs. Nevada

September 21, 2010

BYU will be back at home this week to host the Wolfpack of Nevada.  The Cougars come into the game 1-2, with a win against Washington, and losses against Air Force and Florida State.  The Wolfpack are 3-0, rolling to easy victories over Eastern Washington, Colorado State, and even Cal of the mighty Pac-10.

What we know about Nevada

They are not a team to be overlooked, and are as close a thing to a challenger to Boise State’s WAC crown than anyone has seen recently.  They have impressed statistically so far, ranking 3rd in total offense, 4th in scoring offense, 5th in rushing offense, 9th in pass efficiency (out of all 120 FBS teams).  Equally impressive is that their offensive prowess was undiminished against Cal – where they laid down 52 points.

What we know about BYU

They are struggling.  They were able to establish something offensively by putting together two scoring drives in the second quarter against Florida State, in which they cut FSU’s lead down to 13-10.  A starting quarterback is supposed to be named sometime this week, and that will help the team to establish its offense, as all of the reps taken will help build some much needed chemistry.  BYU’s stats are as scary as Nevada’s, albeit for different reasons.  The Cougars are ranked 100th in total offense, 101st in passing offense, 105th in pass efficiency, 110th in scoring offense, and 119th in rush defense.  Why is that important?  Nevada was the national leader in rushing offense last year.

Keys to the game

Jake Heaps and the Receivers. A clever on campus band?  No.  Key to winning games, yes.  The receivers need to get open, and Jake needs to make his read and get rid of the ball quickly.  If Jake can build on what he did in quarter 2 against FSU, and develop more chemistry with his receivers, this season can turn around in a hurry.  Otherwise, the season will end up with more Florida State-like outings, where the Cougars gave up 8 sacks.

Ball control. In BYU’s losses this year, they have lost the turnover battle.  Winning this one will go a long way to help them in a victory against the Wolfpack.  Key also is not just waiting for turnovers, but creating them.  BYU will have to take the ball away from Nevada’s offense, and keep it away from them if they hope to keep the score from getting out of hand.

Team Identity. I feel like I’ve mentioned this a lot, but from the coaching staff down to the waterboy, this team doesn’t seem to have a vision this year.  Maybe it goes back to not choosing a starting QB.  I get that we wanted to be fair to both Nelson and Heaps, but why not take a leap of faith on one a month ago, let him get into rhythm with the offense, and if he really sucked it up during game time, you call in your #2…isn’t that what it’s all about?  The QB call is just an example of how the team is lacking direction from the top down.  Once the coaches get a vision of what they want to see, the players will be able to start moving that direction.  The Cougars have a lot to learn, and the season isn’t new anymore.

Prediction

In my season preview, I chose BYU over Nevada 38-21.  Based on recent performance by both teams, I’m going to flip-flop that call this week, and call this one a win for Nevada.  Wolfpack 38, Cougars 21.

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Florida State 34, BYU 10

September 20, 2010

I wasn’t among those that picked BYU to beat Florida State this year, though I was among those who were hoping to be wrong.  I expected to see more from the Cougars even in a loss. Let’s take a look at what went wrong for the Cougars, by looking at the keys to the game from my BYU-Florida State preview.

BYU will have to stop Christian Ponder. The Cougar defense did a better job against Ponder this year.  He only accounted for 149 yards passing and 1 TD, with 50 yards rushing (last year 195/2/77).  His supporting cast however, was able to supplement quite effectively, and the Seminoles ended up with 278 rushing yards.

Ball control. BYU only gave up two turnovers, and FSU gave up one, so you have to say it did turn out better than last year (5/0).  Still, in a game against a tough opponent, any lost possession will cost you big.

Team Identity. BYU still needs to find themselves, especially on offense.  You won’t win many games when you average 15 points of offense.  To help matters, Bronco Mendenhall says he may be able to name a starter at QB as early as Wednesday.  This will be key for the Cougars to build offensive chemistry.  Also rumored is that Chambers may move to TE since no one has stepped up at the position, and Jake Heaps is in desperate need of someone that can catch the ball in the middle of the field.

Brightest Moment. Just before the half, Jake Heaps led BYU to 10 straight points against FSU to bring the score to 10-13.

What we know about FSU

Florida State is now a few votes from being a ranked team.  Their only loss is to now #8 Oklahoma.  They are looking to open up ACC play this week against Wake Forest, and are favored to win the Atlantic division this year.  They have a strong team, and should end up about as good as predicted before the season.

What we know about BYU

Midway through their tough non-conference schedule, BYU is 1-1, with a red-hot Nevada team up next.  They are a young team, struggling to find an identity.  They need a starting QB, and most of Cougar Nation believes that they have one.  According to Bronco, the growth the team needs to make is not something that will be achieved in a week, but throughout a whole season.  The Cougars will need to get things figured out quickly, or the bulk of this season may be wasted on “learning experiences.”

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