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Week 8 Preview – BYU vs. Wyoming

October 21, 2010

The BYU defense, and somewhat the team at large, has been revitalized since Bronco Mendenhall resumed Defensive Coordinator responsibilities after the Utah State game.  That revitalization led to a win against San Diego State, and to a mostly impressive outing by the defense against TCU.  BYU heads into what is admittedly the soft underbelly of its Mountain West schedule over the next few weeks.  First up, Wyoming.

What we know about Wyoming

Wyoming is sitting at (2-5) for the year, and they have played one of the nation’s hardest schedules to date.  Their losses came against (rankings at the time) #5 Texas, #3 Boise St, Air Force (has been top 25 this year), #5 TCU, and #11 Utah.  They won by 5 points over Toledo, and by 8 points over Southern Utah.  The Cowboys are ranked 119th nationally in rushing yards, and points for, while they sport the 100th best passing yards.  BYU has won the last six games against Wyoming, and the last time Wyoming beat BYU in Provo was 1987.

What we know about BYU

BYU, like Wyoming, is (2-5) so far this season.  Like Wyoming, they have played some tough competition, with losses coming against Florida State, Air Force, #4 TCU, and Nevada.  They also lost to Utah State, but obviously that shouldn’t be in the same list.  Maybe not Nevada either.  So BYU’s losses weren’t as impressive as Wyoming’s list of losses.  Needless to say, both teams are eager to face what should be easier competition this Saturday.  BYU ranks 97th in passing yards, 82nd in rushing yards, 115th in points for, and 78th in points against.

Keys to the game

Jake Heaps and the Receivers. Word from BYU practice is that Bronco Mendenhall stepped over to have some words with the receivers and tight-ends.  He also called out a few players by name, encouraging them to step up or get out.  It will be interesting to see if/how that might play out on the field.  Heaps should have an easier time finding open receivers this week, though it remains to be seen if openness has anything to do with completion percentage.  Looking back at Wyoming’s wins and losses this year, they seem disposed to give up an equally large number of yards passing and rushing.

Closed Chambers. O’Neill Chambers will not drop any more passes.  He will not take a knee way too late.  He will never get that KR/PR touchdown he always talked about.  He will never again be suspended from BYU for ‘being competitive.’  He also will never help BYU to beat Utah again.  There are a lot of things he will never do again, because he has been indefinitely suspended, and is planning to transfer to another division I school.  He submitted a list of six schools that he’s considering.  I do feel sorry that this potentially great relationship has ended so badly.  Best of luck to O’Neill, and to whatever school decides to take him on.

The Rush Attack. Bronco Mendenhall shared this week that while in the past they have been a “pass first” team, currently they are a run first, play action team, with drop-back throws to take advantage of run defense.  The success of the run will alleviate pressure on the passing attack.  If the passing offense can gain some cohesion over the next few weeks, maybe those roles could reverse, or at least become more symbiotic.

Ball Control. In Bronco’s five wins (no losses) to Wyoming, the Cougars have completely dominated in the turnover department, 17-0.  If BYU can keep that 0 firmly in place, they should have no problem handling Wyoming.

It’s all about the D. The Cougars have shut out the Cowboys in the last two meetings, 52-0 last year, and 44-0 in 2008.  If Bronco can find some way to keep up the high intensity his defense showed against TCU during the first 28:30 last week, the defense should have its way with the Wyoming offense all day long.  If the Pokes are able to come up with some big plays though, watch out, because BYU’s confidence may shake easily.

Prediction

If they played according to their average offensive output, BYU would win 15-12.  If they played to their points against average, BYU would give up 28, and Wyoming 31, so BYU would win that way too.  In my season preview, I chose BYU over Wyoming, 49-6, but I do not believe the offense will do that much.

Yes, Wyoming has played a very difficult schedule, but I believe that BYU really is on the up-swing.  BYU’s defense will come into this game expecting to dominate Wyoming, and the Cougar offense will likely have a better output than they’re used to.  BYU wins this game 31-10.

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TCU 31, BYU 3

October 18, 2010

I called the game 35-10, and I have to say, I was much closer to the actual score than many of the  people I heard from before the game.  Apologies accepted.  A lot of people are really down on BYU this week because of the bad loss, but don’t forget – it was TCU this week, not Utah State.  We have a lot to be excited about, because there were several positives that I saw during the game.  Let’s take a look at how things went for the Cougars.

Offense. I’m not going to say much about the offense this week.  The 119th best passing attack went against the #1 defense (points against).  The Cougars had a scoring drive against TCU, notching a field goal, and ending TCU’s two game shutout streak.  Kudos to the offense for scoring.  They will have opportunities to look better over the next several weeks.  One note though: play calling continues to bewilder me.  First BYU drive of the second half ends on a 4th and 1 attempt on the BYU 48.  I realize that we were down 17-0, and it didn’t cost us on the next drive, but at this point in the game it seems a punt still makes sense.  Poor decision making and miscues led to short fields for TCU’s offense, and a tough game for BYU’s defense.

Offensive changes. O’Neil Chambers has been suspended for the remainder of the season (reasons not yet made pubic).  Bronco Mendenhall continues to support Anae’s play-calling, but you have to imagine that the next four games are must-wins for Anae to keep his position.  He’s currently sporting the 119th best passing attack in the country.  Yeah, out of 120.  While a mid-season replacement isn’t readily available as Mendenhall was to take over as DC, Brandon Doman might make a decent interim OC.  After all, can he really make things any worse? (I know, not a good argument for anything, but…)

Defense. Until 1:30 remaining in the second quarter, the BYU defense held TCU to only 3 points.  TCU’s first five drives ended like this: punt, punt, FG, turnover on downs, punt.  This from a top ten scoring offense that averages more than 40 points per game.  For 28:30 of the game, the Cougars were within one score of TCU.

3rd Quarter. This was the best quarter for the Cougars – TCU’s three drives this quarter each ended in a punt, and this is the quarter when BYU scored their field goal.  As I tweeted during the game – BYU won this quarter 3-0.  TCU has only “lost” one other quarter this year – the third quarter against Baylor, when the Bears outscored the Frogs 7-3.

Rush Defense. BYU’s goal was to make TCU one-dimensional.  The Bronco D held a top ten rushing offense (averaging around 270 rushing yards per game) to just 108.  They forced Andy Dalton to beat them through the air, and for much of the day, they frustrated his attempts to do so.

TCU’s Patterson not so Saintly. For someone who professes to not care about style points, the call on 4th and 3 (from the BYU 21 with 4:26 to go, and already leading 24-3) to throw the ball into the end-zone seems a bit odd.  Why not make the classy move and kick the field goal?  Here’s why: because 31-3 looks a lot better than 27-3.  Because Patty cares about what voters will think of the score, even if he won’t admit it.

What we know about TCU

TCU is 5th in the overall BCS standings, just released this weekend.  They are a team that dominates you on both sides of the ball.  They don’t make mistakes, and they capitalize on yours.  Next week they’re heading on to face a weakened Air Force team, but the date that they’ll have circled on their calendar is November 6th, when they face Utah in Salt Lake City.  They’re on the road to a BCS bowl, and a potential national title.

What we know about BYU

BYU turned a corner when Bronco reclaimed the defense and pulled out a win against San Diego State.  You don’t necessarily want to face TCU the week after turning a corner like that, but I believe that the positives we saw this week from the Cougars are enough to be happy about.  The BYU defense played nearly three great quarters – the first 28:30, and the third quarter.  In the end, it wasn’t enough to overcome the inept offense, but the defense played with fire and executed above expectations.  BYU’s schedule gets considerably easier over the next four games.  The combined record of their first seven opponents?  33-13.  The next four? 5-22.  The upcoming games are against Wyoming (2-5), UNLV (1-6), at Colorado State (2-5), and against New Mexico (0-6).  If the Cougars win those, they will be 6-5, and bowl eligible.

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Week 7 Preview – BYU @ TCU

October 15, 2010

BYU turned a corner last week, rebounding against San Diego State, and cruising toward greatness with renewed zeal as Bronco reclaimed the D, and his team as a whole.  The Cougars and their new-found zeal will face a seemingly impossible task this week as they travel to Fort Worth to face the Horned Frogs of TCU.  After losing a shootout to TCU in 2005, BYU won games against the Frogs in 2006 and 2007, and TCU has won the last two meetings.

What we know about TCU

TCU is the #4 team in the nation.  The only game they’ve lost the last two years was to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl at the end of last season.  They have their sights set on a national championship this year – the apex of Coach Patterson’s pyramid of goals/accomplishments.  It’s a team that features the #2 scoring defense and the #8 scoring offense.  Basically, TCU is one tough cookie.

What we know about BYU

They are delighted to be 2-4 this week.  Certainly it does seem a lot better than 1-5.  The Cougars played an inspired game last week against San Diego State, and emotion combined with execution turned into a win.  The defense held a potent SDSU rushing attack to -2 yards in the first half, and to 53 total for the game.  Bronco taking over the defense has had an immediate impact, and this team is going to look better and better as the season progresses.  This may not be the best week for the Cougars to demonstrate their growth, but if they did pull off a win, this would be the biggest upset in BYU history. Why?  Because they’ve never beaten someone this good when they’ve been this bad.

Keys to the game

Jake Heaps and the Receivers. The run game was able to alleviate some stress that was resting squarely on the shoulders of Jake Heaps last week.  That led to him completing a better percentage of passes (15/22) than in previous games.  TCU’s potent offense and stingy defense will likely have the Cougars playing from behind, so expect some more passing attempts from Heaps this week.  The TCU defense might be caught off guard if BYU’s receivers actually catch the passes that hit them in the hands.

The Rush Attack. Last week, JJ DiLuigi and Bryan Kariya combined for over 200 yards rushing, which helped BYU completely dominate the time of possession (45:01).  It certainly couldn’t hurt to be able to pull off something like that against TCU, but you have to ask yourself: which would you rather have on the field?  TCU’s offense, or their defense?

Ball Control. In the last two losses to TCU, BYU has turned over the ball 6 times, to TCU’s 1.  Against a team as good as TCU, every possession is important, and you cannot give up any opportunities.

It’s all about the D. My favorite line to tweet during last week’s game?  Anything that involved “Bronco D.”  The Bronco D is back – including longer practices, harder practices, and more intense practices than before.  They showed that they have the ability to make enough plays to win last week, and the offense also fed off of their energy.  If the Cougars are going to pull off an upset, it will be because their defense kept them close.

Prediction

In my season preview, I chose TCU over BYU, 42-35.  I don’t think it will be that close now.  My best guess is 35-10.  It’s still a statement win for the Frogs, but also reflects BYU’s improvement.  In that scenario, TCU would not score as many points as they have averaged through 6 games, though their defense will continue to maintain its average.  I do not see this game as TCU’s third shutout, but it should be a decisive win for the frogs.  I’ve said this before though- the odds are stacked against the Cougars tomorrow.  They are four touchdown underdogs.  So they have nothing to lose.  If this game is anywhere close at halftime, watch out.

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BYU 24, San Diego State 21

October 13, 2010

In my predictions, I’m often wrong, and sometimes I look downright foolish (see BYU @ Utah St. Preview).  Today, I may stand alone again, but I called the game exactly.  That’s a first for this blog, and I don’t mind enjoying it.  As I mentioned in the preview, 24 points is the highest offensive output for the Cougars this season, and holding SDSU to only 21, well, that was the second best defensive effort, measured by points.  Yes, the Cougars are 2-4, but a happy 2-4, that seems a world away from 1-5.

San Diego State had one last opportunity to kick the Cougars on their way out the conference door.  They are one of the schools in the Mountain West conference that has indicated that they do not want to play BYU as an independent.  Saturdays loss to the down but-not-necessarily-out Cougars may give you a glimpse into why the Aztecs don’t want to play them in the future.  So, with a second W in hand, let’s take a look at the keys to the game, and see what worked for BYU.

Keys to the game

The Rush Attack. Wow. BYU put together a run game that dominated SDSU from start to finish, putting up 271 yards rushing, and allowing  BYU to possess the ball for 45:01 – yes, for three entire quarters, the BYU offense had the ball.  It seemed that each and every snap was delayed until the last few seconds of play clock.  Bronco’s strategy to keep the ball away from the Aztecs worked.  DiLuigi and Kariya each ran the ball 22 times, DiLuigi for 134 yards, and Kariya for 85.  It was a remarkable performance, and a lot of credit must be given to the O-line for making it happen.

Jake Heaps and the Receivers. Heaps had a good day – he was 15/22 for 126 yards.  That’s well above his usual 50% completion rate, and I think the run focus really helped alleviate some of the pressure that he was under.  Instead of heaps having 50+ attempts, that burden was on the runningbacks, and Heaps was able to settle his nerves a bit.  While he did throw a pick, I believe that overall his decision making has generally been good.  His receivers only dropped a couple of passes this game, though I do remember seeing the ball hit at least two of them in the hands before falling to the ground.

Team Identity. This team took a giant leap forward this week, with Coach Mendenhall taking over the defense, and in so doing, taking over the battle for team identity.  This team fought with purpose and with emotion through the entire game, and I’m glad that the team was able to see some immediate results for all of their hard work by getting the W.

It’s all about the D. Bronco was wrong.  We were able to see a difference in the play of the defense in week 1 of the New old Mendenhall system.  Practices were longer and harder than ever in this season.  Some referred to last week as a mini fall camp.  Mendenhall works as hard or harder than the team he’s coaching, and they work harder as a result.   In the first half, SDSU was held to -2 yards rushing, and to 53 in the game.  Their high-powered offense only accounted for 273 yards.  Granted, they did remarkably well for only possessing the ball for 15 minutes, but Bronco saw that coming, and adjusted the game plan accordingly.  Even after the  BYU game, SDSU averages 280 yards passing, and 180 rushing yards per game.  The Bronco D simply took that away.

What we know about San Diego State

It will likely be quite some time before the Aztecs will get another chance to face the Cougars, and without a conference affiliation, they may never play again.   The Aztecs are now 3-2, heading into the bulk of their MWC schedule, which includes 3 ranked teams, including a matchup next week against #23 Air Force.

What we know about BYU

The parallels with the 1993 season are scary.  BYU had 4 straight losses, the last coming against Utah State.  The win that broke the losing streak?  Against San Diego State.  There is one thing to be hopeful about the comparison though: the Cougars ended up 6-6 that year.  With the win against SDSU, BYU can end the season at 6-6 and be bowl eligible, even with potential losses at ranked TCU and Utah.  This was a great game, a statement game by BYU.  Don’t count them out.  The instant impact of Bronco taking over the defense was stunning.  I am excited to see what this team looks like as the season progresses.

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Week 6 Preview – BYU vs. SDSU

October 6, 2010

BYU has limped out of their brutal non-conference schedule, ripe for the beatings being prepared by their soon to be former conference foes.  Air Force already got their shots in, but up next is San Diego State.  SDSU last beat the Cougars in 2005, Bronco Mendenhall’s first year as head coach of the Cougars.  BYU owns a stunning majority of wins in this conference match-up, but, as with all the other games on the Cougars’ schedule this year, this may be the year for the Aztecs to exact some lasting revenge.

What we know about San Diego State

Well, San Diego State hasn’t had a winning record since 1998.  Apparently, their scheduling department finally figured out how to get some wins, as the Aztecs have won games this year against Nicholl’s State, New Mexico State, and Utah State.  Their lone loss came from Missouri of the Big 12, a close loss at 27-24.  So the Aztecs are sitting pretty at 3-1, having enjoyed a few cupcakes, and a bye week to get ready for the Cougars.  SDSU is top 15 in the country in points for, points against, and passing yards.  Because of recent games played, SDSU is better than USC.  Follow the flow of college football.  SDSU > Utah St. > BYU > Washington > USC.

What we know about BYU

BYU is off to its worst start since 1973.  If they don’t pull out a win against the Aztecs this week, they’re off to Fort Worth to visit TCU the next week, so they could very easily be 1-6 in two more weeks.  Bronco Mendenhall fired defensive coordinator Jaime Hill this week, citing differences in leadership.  Mendenhall has resumed his DC duties in addition to HC, as he operated at the beginning of his tenure.  My favorite remark regarding the change came from Vic So’oto, when he said the practices under Mendenhall would be “scary.”  I hope they are.  The last two days, the Cougars have had longer than normal practices, and Bronco has indicated that if he continues to have as much fun as he’s had the last two days, he’ll continue being the DC next season as well.

Keys to the game

Jake Heaps and the Receivers. Heaps continues to complete around 50% of his passes (more than 50 attempts last week), but that is not translating to the generous amounts of yards you would expect (less than 300), or touchdowns (none last week).  How many times will we see the football hit the receivers in the hands and fall to the ground?  Dropped passes have had a huge impact.  In the last game alone, as many as 13 passes were dropped, and could have accounted for as many as 200 yards passing, and 3 touchdowns.  Read David Noriega’s article about it here.

The Rush Attack. Special thanks to Greg Wrubell for sharing these tidbits on Twitter.  BYU has had three consecutive games where they’ve rushed for fewer than 100 yards.  The last time that happened was in games 3-5 of 2005.  In the Bronco Mendenhall era, BYU is 43-8 when rushing for 100+ yards, and 7-11 when not.  Honestly, 100 yards rushing isn’t that much, and it’s not a magic number, but it is enough to keep the defense honest – where they have to respect the run threat, and that alleviates some pressure on your passing game.  When each aspect is working, it supports the other.  When neither works, you lose games.  BYU has the running backs that it needs to get this job done.  100 yards per game is key to this offense being able to perform well as a whole.

Team Identity. This team is still trying to find itself.  Bronco was asked if this were the low-point of his career.   He responded by saying that he had been fired from Oregon State.  There’s perspective for you.  This season is not over, but we all know that our Cougars don’t do well playing from behind.  Since 2005, the Cougars only have two comebacks from 10 points or more.  Hopefully, the Cougars haven’t given up on this season yet.  They’re down by several more games than usual.

It’s all about the D. Bronco is back on defense.  The head coach/defensive coordinator had slowly given up more and more of the defensive coaching duties over the years, and now, with the firing of Jaime Hill, it’s time to put the Bronco back in defense.  Mendenhall said you may not see a difference in their play this week, but that the change is starting with the culture.  Practices have been longer and more difficult.  I certainly hope they have involved a lot of tackling.  Newsflash to the Cougar D: most athletes don’t just fall down when you bump into them, especially if they’re expecting the bump.  Thanks to  @jasonpbyu for sharing this link on CougarBoard, which shows the gradually weakening defense as Bronco gradually released control.  Average loss each season was 11, 5, 9, 16, 28, and this season 21 points.  I agree that this is not purely a measure of defense, but the correlation is there.

Prediction

The last time BYU lost four games in a row (1993), they came out of it with a 45-44 win over San Diego State.  In my season preview, I chose BYU over San Diego State, 24-7.  I’m going to respect both schools for what they’ve accomplished this year, and, while still awarding the win to BYU, I’ll call it 24-21.  Remarkably, that would be the best the Cougars have done on offense all season, and the second best defensive performance.

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