Archive for August, 2011

h1

Week 1 Preview – BYU @ Ole Miss

August 28, 2011

It’s time for football! For the second summer in a row we’ve been inundated with conference realignment talk. While it is all very exciting to speculate who may end up where in the next few years…I am relieved to offer you my first weekly preview of the season, and to welcome everyone back to football. Saturday can’t come soon enough.

What we know about Ole Miss

Ole Miss is coming off an abysmal year that started with a home loss to FCS Jacksonville State. In that game, Ole Miss started quickly and had jumped out to a 31-10 lead at halftime. Jacksonville State rallied in the second half to tie the game at 34 apiece, and two overtimes and one two point conversion later, the game was over. The Rebels ended up with a 4-8 record, with wins over Tulane, Fresno State, Kentucky, and UL Lafayette. The 2010 Rebels would frequently start strong, but allow opponents to score major points in the second half. The defense is only returning three starters, so it is difficult to say if they will have a similar tendency this year. The rebel defense gave up nearly 400 yards and more than 35 points per game. The offense did manage 30 points per game relying on the nation’s 18th best rushing attack, at 207 yards per game, while only coming up with 190 passing yards per game. Many analysts have chosen Ole Miss to finish last in the SEC West this year, and there is no real indication that this year will be any better for the Rebels than last year.

What we know about BYU

BYU is entering their first year of football independence, and will have the opportunity to make a splash with an early schedule that includes Ole Miss, Texas, Utah, and UCF. Last year the Cougars started 1-4 and ended up 7-6, finishing the season in dominating fashion with a blowout bowl win over UTEP. The season turned around when Jaime Hill was fired as defensive coordinator and Bronco stepped back into his dual role as head coach and DC. The Cougars of 2011 will look different than the Cougars of 2010. Anae and Hill are out, Doman and Bronco are in. Add in Dupaix for the running backs and Cahoon for the receivers, and you’ve got yourself an exciting group of coaches that are energetic and talented. Plenty of returning starters, and some amazing new talent should allow BYU to dominate many teams on both sides of the ball.

Keys to the game

Enter the Doman O. Offensive coordinator/quarterback’s coach Brandon Doman has installed a Pro-Style offense this year. It’s an offense that is meant to rely on the run to play-action pass combination, and with multiple plays run from the same formation, defenses will be kept guessing all game long. Doman isn’t afraid to have Heaps throw the deep ball, and BYU has the receivers to run out and get them. This is a huge change from the offense run by Robert Anae, which was usually as predictable as the sun coming up in the East.

Jake Heaps and the Receivers. Jake Heaps had an amazing season as a freshman, and he peaked at the end of the season, throwing four touchdown passes in the New Mexico Bowl. Heaps will have amazing targets in Cody Hoffman (who caught three of the touchdowns in the bowl game), McKay Jacobson, and Ross Apo. Apo was one of the other guys to commit to BYU in the same press conference as Heaps, and he was expected to play last year, but had a nasty broken finger. Add to these three the other capable receivers, tight ends, and running backs that will join in the passing game, and Jake Heaps will have an amazing array of targets to choose from.

The Rush Attack. JJ DiLuigi, Bryan Kariya, and Josh Quezada were a three-headed beast of running backs last year, and they are all back again this season. DiLuigi had more than 900 rushing yards, and Kariya and Quezada each added 500 yards. Their important role will continue this year in the pro-style offense, which will depend on these experienced rushers to make the play-action believable.

Special Teams. Special teams were given special attention in fall camp, and the Cougars will be wearing black shoes and socks all season to remind them of the emphasis. Justin Sorensen returns from his mission with a booming kick – he’s been hitting field goals of up to 57 yards in camp, despite struggling somewhat with shorter kicks. It will be exciting to see what kind of impact the extra dedication to special teams will have on the gameplay.

Bronco D. Let’s be honest.  Since Bronco took over as coordinator, the Defense has been amazing. Bronco’s D returns an experienced line, but is especially stacked at linebacker. The Cougar front seven will be deadly against the run this year, forcing teams to be one-dimensional, having to rely on the pass. This will be difficult for teams like Ole Miss, who rely on the strength of their run game. Player to watch: USC transfer Uona Kaveinga.

Prediction

Ole Miss is an SEC team, but they are not a good one. This game will be close near the beginning (0-0, right?) but the Cougars will pull away from the Rebels and win the game handily, 35-13.

h1

2011 BYU Season Preview

August 22, 2011

Independence is upon us, and it is a new beginning for the team, school, and fans alike. Last year at this time, Jaime Hill was the defensive coordinator. He was fired after the loss to Utah State during the 2010 season, and Bronco Mendenhall re-assumed the dual role of Head Coach and Defensive Coordinator. Robert Anae was released as offensive coordinator at the conclusion of the 2010 season, and was replaced by Brandon Doman, who had been the quarterbacks coach. Joe DuPaix has come over from Navy to coach the running backs, and Ben Cahoon retired from the CFL and became the Cougars’ wide receivers coach. The coaching staff is now defined by young, energetic leaders.

The rocket-man himself

Offense

Under the direction of new offensive coordinator Brandon Doman, the Cougars are introducing a pro-style offense, which will feature Jake Heaps more under-center, with drop back and play-action passes.  This will allow the Cougars to use a few formations to run many plays, making it harder for the defenses to read the play.

The offense is stacked, returning 4 of 5 offensive linemen, the top 3 passers, receivers, and rushers from 2010.

Jake Heaps threw for 2316 yards, 15 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, with a completion percentage of 57.2. Compared to previous years, the yardage is quite low: between 2005 and 2009, John Beck and Max Hall threw between 3,500 and 3,900 yards each season. But when you consider that Heaps threw for 2300 yards as a freshman, we should be able to expect great things from him this year, and for the next two as well.

In 2010, the Cougars had to find a replacement for the receiving yards vacated by tight-ends Dennis Pitta and Andrew George. That replacement didn’t come, and the passing game really suffered for it. The Cougars leading receiver last season was Cody Hoffman, with just 527 yards. Prior to that season, BYU’s leading receiver had caught between 800 and 1500 yards for at least 5 seasons. Hoffman  was closely followed by DiLuigi and Mckay Jacobson, who each had more than 400 receiving yards. These three will be joined by freshman Ross Apo, who missed last season due to a broken finger. These four players will be an amazing group to watch.

For each of the five years prior to 2010, BYU had a 1,000 yard rusher. Curtis Brown broke the mark in 2005 and 2006, and Harvey Unga did so in 2007, 2008, and 2009. Last year, JJ DiLuigi came up just short, reaching 917 yards. Bryan Kariya and Josh Quezada added more than 500 yards each, though, and with all three backs returning, this will be an impressive group once again.

Defense

Kaveinga the Beast

The best thing to ever happen to this defense was the firing of Jaime Hill halfway through last season. The change was immediate. The defense played with energy and purpose, and the results were seen on the field the very next week as BYU was able to beat a tough San Diego State team. The biggest difference between the Bronco D and the Hill D was run defense. Hill’s defense gave up 242 rushing yards to Utah State. Against SDSU, the very next week, only 53 were given up. Even TCU, who averaged nearly 250 rushing yards per game en-route to a perfect season, only managed 108 yards against Bronco’s defense. And this season, Bronco has had these players under his immediate direction since Spring camp.

The defense lost an amazing leader in Andrew Rich (S), who led the team in both tackles and interceptions, and Vic So’oto who led the team in sacks. This year, the strength of Bronco’s defense will likely be at the linebacker position, where we will see Uona Kaveinga, Brandon Ogletree, Kyle Van Noy, Jameson Frazier, and Jordan Pendleton. Kaveinga is a USC transfer who had previously committed to BYU, went to USC instead, and came back to the Y last year. Reports out of camp have been amazing, and all signs point to him having an amazing year for the Cougar D. Up front, the Cougars will have a talented, experienced trio, led by Eathyn Manumaleuna, Romney Fuga, and Matt Putnam. If there is a weakness in the defense, it will be in the secondary, which graduated most of its starters.

Bronco’s defense will take away the run. They will force your team to become one-dimensional. The front 7 are experienced and have an amazing amount of talent. Teams that rely on the run, teams with inexperienced quarterbacks, will be driven from their comfort zone, and they are likely to flounder against this stout D.

Special Teams

Special Teams was a focus during fall camp. The coaches wore black retro Cosmo shirts, and the players will be wearing black shoes and socks to remind them of the special teams focus this season. Riley Nelson will reportedly be taking a leading role on the special teams this season, and it will be exciting to see his contribution there. Justin Sorensen has returned from his mission, and will resume his kicking duties. He fills the void left by Mitch Payne, who left BYU as the all-time leading scorer. Sorensen has amazing range, easily making field goals of 40-59 yards, but he struggles a bit with the shorter kicks of 20-39 yards.

Bronco has chosen to emphasize special teams this year, and because of that we’re going to see some great plays from these units. Watch out for blocked kicks, more yardage on on kick and punt returns, and (hopefully) more consistency from our kicker.

Season Prediction – 11-2 overall (including bowl)

Last year, I was overly optimistic regarding what the program would achieve, but honestly, who picked BYU to lose to Utah State? Anybody? Bueller? I do feel that a few adjustments earlier in the season would have netted more wins. 1. Heaps as starter from day one. 2. Bronco leads defense from day one. 3. Robert Anae listens to Doman more.

But that was last year. This year, we have another year that has a few difficult games and several cupcakes, and once again a schedule that is front-heavy. The difficulty with picking the wins and losses this season is picking the losses. I feel that we have a very talented team, and they truly could win any game on the schedule. That said, I don’t think BYU goes undefeated this year. I would be overjoyed if they did, but I don’t see it happening. My best guess for losses are @ Texas and the “neutral” game against TCU. I chose Texas because, down or not, winning in Austin is not an easy thing to do. I chose TCU because somehow, Gary Patterson just has Bronco figured out. The short week leading up to TCU doesn’t help either.

Some people have BYU losing to Ole Miss and Hawaii. I don’t think these will be losses because Bronco has shown us that when he has extra time to prepare for a team, he delivers the W. BYU has won four straight season-openers, including Oklahoma in 2009. I also think the two weeks to prepare for Hawaii will be enough for the Cougars to get the W on the islands.

BYU is contracted to play in the Armed Forces Bowl this year, assuming bowl eligibility. They play the #3 team in C-USA. I think that will end up being Houston or Southern Miss (Behind SMU and UCF). For the purposes of the pick, I chose Houston.

Sept. 3 – @ Ole Miss – W

Sept. 10 – @ Texas – L

Sept. 17 – Utah – W

Sept. 23 – UCF – W

Sept. 30 – Utah State – W

Oct. 8 – San Jose State – W

Oct. 15 – @ Oregon State – W

Oct. 22 – Idaho State – W

Oct. 28 – @ TCU – L

Nov. 12 – Idaho – W

Nov. 19 – New Mexico State – W

Dec. 3 – @ Hawaii – W

Armed Forces Bowl Dec. 30 – Houston –

h1

Preseason Top 25

August 21, 2011

Here is my College Football preseason top 25 poll.

You may notice the absence of BYU. I think they’re around 32, but if they win their first game or two (at Ole Miss and at Texas) then they’ll surely make this list.

1. Oklahoma
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Boise State
5. LSU
6. Florida State
7. Texas A&M
8. Stanford
9. Virginia Tech
10. Nebraska
11. Oklahoma State
12. Notre Dame
13. Arkansas
14. South Carolina
15. TCU
16. Ohio State
17. Georgia
18. Wisconsin
19. Michigan State
20. Florida
21. USC
22. West Virginia
23. Texas
24. Mississippi State
25. Missouri
h1

BYU: A fanbase divided

August 15, 2011

In what seems a very short time, the BYU fans that had been united in the move to independence have been divided by a potential opportunity to join the Big 12 Conference. I conducted a poll of my twitter followers over the weekend, and here you can see the results:

While the poll represents the minds of just 72 individuals, it at least is a fair sampling of the division which has formed among the BYU faithful. There were 25 votes to remain independent, and 29 votes to join the Big 12, should the offer come in the wake of a Texas A&M departure. An additional 18 votes would like to see BYU in a stable BCS conference, sooner or later. The 25 votes to remain independent represent just under 35% of those polled, which means a full 65% of fans are looking for a move to a BCS conference..

On the surface, these numbers are not necessarily divisive, but a quick perusal of my twitter timeline can reveal a bitterness regarding the potential decision to join or not join the Big 12; a decision which BYU administrators may soon face. A simple exchange of differing opinions can quickly escalated into accusations of faithlessness, idiocy, and at least one post mentioned a riot. Emotions are running high on both sides, and it is easy to let a disagreement get out of hand and to let the remarks become hurtful. The following is an attempt to give a fair and unemotional look at the pros and cons of both sides.

BYU to the Big 12

Those on the Big 12 side cite the obvious benefits: inclusion in the BCS, a better home for BYU’s non-football sports, the Big 12 bowl contracts, and the ability to play for a conference championship. The picture is a nice one: the league that had been prepared to include BYU in 1996, but was made to include Baylor, may finally be able to make good with their original plan. BYU would have the ability to play teams like Texas and Oklahoma in football, as well as Kansas and Kansas State in basketball. There is also the thought that since Texas has its own network and ESPN deal, that BYU would be able to retain their TV deal and broadcast rights if they join the Big 12.

The downsides to joining the Big 12? Apparent conference instability, as two schools (Nebraska and Colorado) have departed the conference, and another (Texas A&M) is reportedly seeking to leave as well. Big 12ers will point out that adding BYU may create the stability the conference needs, and if it doesn’t, BYU can always fall back on Independence. Many pro-independence fans feel that breaking the commitment with the WCC would not be fair, as Tom Holmoe made it clear that the WCC was “not a stepping stone” to a greater conference. Big 12ers have expressed two sentiments regarding this, 1) that moving to the Big 12 is worth breaking the WCC deal, or 2) that the WCC will not care because they will recognize that BYU simply cannot pass up this opportunity.

BYU the Independent

The pro-Independence crowd cites the total control which BYU currently enjoys over its own program, as well as exposure for the church. That exposure comes through playing a nation-wide schedule, the unprecedented number of games to be broadcast on ESPN networks, as well as the guarantee of the ESPN deal and retaining broadcast rights for BYUtv (which is not necessarily guaranteed in the Big 12, whose TV deal is with FOX).

The downsides to independence? The Big 12ers point to the WAC heavy schedule and bottom-tier bowl contracts which BYU has been able to obtain, as well as the lack of BCS access (as BYU has no claim on a BCS bowl game, only the national championship, should then end the season ranked #1 or 2 in the BCS). Indy fans will also point out that the WAC-heavy schedule ends after 2012, and the bowl contracts will also improve, as the beginning of independence required a “take what you can get” mentality.

In the end, joining the Big 12 and remaining Independent each have great benefits. Whether one will outweigh the other, we will likely never know, because in choosing one, we may not ever know where the other may have taken us. Both sides have valid arguments for why theirs is the right choice to make. Both sides include risk.

If a decision is made by the BYU administration regarding a move to the Big 12, I hope that the fans will be able to once again be united and support that decision, accepting that the decision will be made by those that have more knowledge than we do. One thing all fans can already agree on? BYU is in a much better place than a year ago.

h1

If you give Nebraska a way out…

August 12, 2011

In the spirit of: If You Give a Mouse a Cookie.

2010

If you give Nebraska a way out of Texas’ conference, they’ll take it.

Once the Cornhuskers go, Larry Scott is going to get an idea.

If Larry Scott invites Texas + 5 to his conference, Texas will leverage it into more power through Dan Beebe.

If Texas gets more power, the Big 12 gets more disgruntled, and Colorado will get out.

If Texas stays in the Big 12, Larry Scott will take your Colorado and raise you a Utah.

If Utah leaves the MWC, in comes Boise St, and out goes BYU too (if you don’t want it, I don’t either).

If BYU and Utah are gone, Craig Thompson must replace them with Fresno State and Nevada.

TCU thinks they smell, so they take their talents to the Big East.

And Craig Thompson invites Hawaii, but only to play football.

2011

If BYU got their own TV deal, Texas will get a bigger one.

If Texas is happy, then A&M isn’t, so they want to go play in the SEC.

If A&M goes to the SEC, Texas will have to choose:

If Texas goes Independent, the Big 12 may get divided up between the other conferences,

Or it may have to try to build on lesser members.

If Texas stays in the Big 12, then the Big 12 will try to add BYU, and maybe Air Force or Louisville.

If the Big 12 adds these schools, Larry Scott will have a plan…

Comment to weigh in on what you think might happen.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

%d bloggers like this: